AirVenture…Oshkosh 2020 has been cancelled along with virtually all major airshows through out the US due to Covid-19. With EAA’s CEO Jack Pelton’s announcement removing speculation that we might be able to enjoy the premiere airshow of the world, the question was posed on a major aviation website…would aviation aficionados consider attending a small, well organized, local airshow with proper precautions?
My answer is no. Why? Read on. Would I, or could I reconsider? Possibly. Why? Read on.
Wittman Field Aerial View…normal operations
From a purely Covid-19 battle-plan perspective, I believe aggressive testing has got to be in place, affordable, readily available, and accurate to figure out any cohesive, intelligent, and effective strategy of doing anything regardless if its business or recreation pursuits. Without massive testing, it is pure unadulterated speculation to get any reasonable accurate infection numbers. The evidence is clear, those areas (nationally or globally) that have been the most thoroughly tested, have had lowest overall death rates. Plus, the earliest opportunity for careful, targeted opening of the local economies.
Testing at an autopsy has scientific value, but little planning value for economic business recovery protocols.
Testing seems to be presented as some sort of option reserved for those who might have symptoms, or given when they enter the emergency room. It will take some time for a vaccine. However, if you know who is infected, was infected, traced the infected movements, you could begin laying out a strategy for doing, in this case, an airshow. That strategy would be based on practical evidence vs estimates generated by computer models, or trying to sort out science through political arguments/debates which seems to dominate most Covid-19 information being presented by most mainstream media.
The new political football is whether the death numbers are accurate. Geez…100k+ dead in a matter of weeks and we are debating if one died of Covid-19 directly, or died of Covid-19 related complications as an argument for making decisions to loosen or tighten local, state, county, or national policies to, at the very least, have some sort of control over infection rates?
This scene ….multiplied by 100,000…and we still don’t know the infection rate
In the past, when fighting anything that threatened the US economy, safety of its citizens, and our daily lifestyle such as 9/11, which killed three thousand in one day, we did not debate a recovery strategy by first assigning an acceptable death rate because 12-61K die of the flu each year, depend on a bunch of computer models to determine the likelihood of another attack in other cities, and make future plans without finding out who the bad guys are, where they are currently at, and how we were going to determine the terrorist infection of the US population. We are losing on an average 1000+ people a day now for over two month, and still have very little idea who is, was, and not currently infected.
We can mobilize to build masks and ventilators, working feverishly towards a vaccine, but we are still struggling to even test 1% of the population going into the fourth month of this pandemic. And the largest portion tested have either died, were admitted to the hospital with complications, or those who have had some sort of symptoms. Sort of like going to a local AA meeting only to find out who, in the greater population, might be an alcoholic.
I would be happy to contemplate attending an airshow if I knew I was not infected, knew that I already contracted it and pose no threat to others, and knew that other attendees either already had it and are no threat, not infected, with those who are infected and contagious not allowed to attend. Massive, purposeful, available testing would provide that kind of useful information to me as a potential spectator or an exhibitor, plus the airshow sponsors including those performing. That is how we supply the US and global population the confidence needed to make a good decision. This also provides the confidence to look at our political and corporate leadership and evaluate their decision-making capabilities in light of evidence vs speculation.
Until then, everything we do, who we see, and where we go is simply a guess. That’s no way to live…suspecting everybody, but not really knowing if we got it, they got it, we are not infected, they are not infected, or we already had it, or find out after we are admitted to the hospital.
We are free to simply continue to do what is really not solving the problem, in many cases adding to the dilemma because we don’t know who is sick. Our present and past attempts provided by a one-size-fits-all approach was attempting to buy a little more precious time, to get possibly get a vaccine…maybe…hopefully before mid-2021. No data, no use of that data means we either keep on guessing or simply throw in the towel, and let nature takes its course.
Herd immunity by letting “nature takes its course”? What kind of nation, economy, and quality of life will be left after that culling? Pretty hard for me to be smart, if I don’t know if I am infected, who is infected, who is not, and who has already been other than quit working, stay at home, isolate myself, and hope to not die because I went to the store to buy groceries as we “let nature take its course”.
Do you know who is Covid-19 infected here? Neither do they.
Experiencing a global economy collapse thru an uncontrolled pandemic makes no sense and certainly does not offer any hope of some sort of control or long term solution. There would be no economic recovery, just a new normal born out of chaos.
We can do better. We have to do better. Let’s get this economy open based on knowledge rather than emotionalism mixed with politics. The only way to get evidence based knowledge is by aggressive testing, multiple testing, and sustained testing over time. Once that is available for everyone in the US, then we can get this country back to work. Then we can enjoy our aviation passions without worry or suspicion. Then we will have true freedom rather than an illusion of freedom.
Are you infected with Covid-19? Is your neighbor? What kind of freedom do you really have without this knowledge?
Right now, we have to suspect everyone while going about our daily life without knowing who is sick, was sick, and those yet to be infected. Is that really freedom? Or is that servitude bolstered by a lack of knowledge because we have failed to test, then use that data to open areas less affected and target more resources at areas ravaged by this pandemic.
The entire aviation market has changed, but no one really understands what it will continue to evolve into since the pandemic is far from over. For the moment, commercial aviation is at almost a virtual standstill. Boeing has a backlog of orders, with a ramp full of undelivered new airplanes, and a global parking lot of barely used 737 MAX’s.
Boeing is seeing a small but undoubtedly growing erosion of the new airplane production backlog as airlines re-access their present economic position. How many airlines want a new 737 MAX today or even within the next 12 months? How many airlines have the cash flow to pay for those airplanes already built but not yet delivered? I would surmise that a lot of those 400+ Max’s already built but yet to be delivered will be sitting longer as homes for those airplanes shrivel up. MCAS issues are far from over. Covid-19 has displaced that focus.
As a result, manufacturing and/or production issues, quality control problems, regulatory hurdles, and employee safety are all on the back burner compared to the basic, raw, economics of company survival for the next year. Since Boeing has evolved into a company primarily led by the accountants, those execs are being reshuffled, bureaucracy downsized, with financial power more centralized and concentrated to a comparatively select few.
Is Boeing the 21st century Titanic? Covid-19 seems to be the iceberg that is ripping large holes in the hulls of many companies “too big to fail” or considered “unsinkable”. I personally believe “Boeing Dave” ( Recent new CEO David Calhoun) will be soon making his public appearances, including carefully orchestrated photo ops released as behind the scenes negotiations with government officials are leaked to the news media. This will set new precedence’s and condition the public of those new precedence’s whose present focus is also economic survival. Lots of economic deals are and will be made that never would have been publicly considered prior to Covid-19. Most of those, in my opinion, will be made behind closed doors. The deals will be done. And then the tax-payer will be notified of the bill to be paid.
David Calhoun, Boeing CEO
In my mind, Boeing is setting the table showing the company direction, priorities, intentions, and management placement to facilitate those goals. Is it the proverbial re-arrangement of the deck chairs on a company “too big to fail” or “unsinkable”? Time will tell.
Recently I saw this comment….”I hope Airventure goes on as planned. Allowing pilots, vendors, attendee’s, volunteers to make up their own minds as FREE THINKING adults. Time to let people make up their own minds about what to and what not to attend”.
The author then quoted Ben Franklin in support of his view regarding whether EAA should hold AirVenture 2020 as scheduled July 20-26, 2020…
“Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.”
It’s a correct quote when used in the context of the colonial battle with the British regarding “taxation without representation” which led to the Revolutionary War and the establishment of the United States. This comment and subsequent quote transcends the political affecting the potential physical health of me, my family, my neighborhood, my geographical region, and state. This is a gross misuse of Ben Franklin’s political quote taken totally out of context.
Louisiana, NY, NJ, IL, FL, etc., became Covid-19 epicenters because many FREE THINKING adults exercised their constitutional rights to assemble, gather, and ignore inconvenient but sorely needed health practices, namely social distancing. Many took a political platform, including using out-of-context founding father’s political quotes to justify poor judgement and behavior that flew in the face of a simple, well known and proven, scientific fact. Others simply did not care.
Strict social distancing will have to implemented and cooperatively done to buy the necessary time for current therapies and a future vaccines to be developed. Strict social distancing is an inconvenient truth that buys time so as to not overwhelm our hospitals including the ability to provide emergency and routine services outside of Covid-19 infections. None of this was new news then or now. Louisiana took it to another level of irresponsibility by hosting Mardi Gras in the face of the growing, overwhelming health crisis already taking place in NY. Less than a month later, they too are an epicenter of Covid-19 disease. FL’s beaches were filled with Spring Break revelers, taking their infections back to their homes all over the country, with a large concentration in the midwest, upper-midwest, and the northeast coast adding to the already chaotic scene in NY,NJ, and CT. Plus sowed the seeds of infection in areas previously unaffected.
Spring Break Florida 2020Mardi Gras 2020
The problem is, those decisions by those “FREE THINKING adults” affected the health and in some cases, contributed to the death of people who did not participate, nor sanction, or have any choice in those FREE THINKING adults decisions. For me, with a daughter-in-law RN handling these cases face to face, in the front lines with Covid-19 infected patients, makes it more personal to say the least.
42% of those infected have no symptoms, meaning without testing to see who is actually infected, any Oshkosh attendee will be in close proximity to a completely unknown quantity of infected, highly contagious participants. Considering the age demographics of the average EAA member making up the bulk of Oshkosh attendees, it is abundantly clear to me that Oshkosh AirVenture 2020 could be a future Covid-19 breeding ground with a very disproportionately high Covid-19 fatality rate as a result.
It’s one thing to assemble in fighting the cause of “taxation without representation”. But use that platform to justify irresponsible behavior under the label of FREE THINKING adults exercising their constitutional rights affecting the freedom, health, and literally life of so many others is, in my mind, pure selfishness.
I am sure, when one is suffering in a crowded ICU with a ventilator aiding one’s already labored breathing, there is little comfort from hearing those immortal political words of Benjamin Franklin “Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.”
What caused the crash of the Collings Foundation WWII Boeing B-17G Flying Fortress October 2nd, 2019 at the Bradley International Airport, Windsor Locks, CT during a Living History Flight Exemption passenger flight? The FAA has revealed some very damning information that has caused the FAA to remove the Living History Flight Exhemption with the result that the Colling Foundation cannot fly their warbirds with paying passengers aboard.
I am in total agreement with the FAA when I read the official document explaining their reason for rescinding the Collings Foundation Living History Flight Exemption (LHFE) number 6540P. I am surprised and deeply disappointed in how the Collings Foundation allowed the “Monkey to Guard the Bananas” allowing a first class warbird restoration and living history flight operation degrade, in the case of B-17G “Nine-O-Nine” specifically, resulting in an emergency landing attempt that ultimately destroyed the airplane, killing seven passengers and crew and injuring five others.
So what did actually degrade? First was normal, but critical maintenance of the engines ignition system. Two was record keeping of aircraft discrepancies and maintenance that was to correct them. Three was no prior training given to the crew chief regarding the Collings Foundation own Safety Management System to be performed by the crew chief specifically required by the Living History Flight Exemption regulations. Four, the pilot in command was also the Director of Maintenance hence, the title “The Monkey Guarding the Bananas”.
1. Maintenance issues.
The airplane lost power in both the number three and number four engines, both being on the right side of the airplane. Although, the NTSB has not determined an official final cause for the accident, the NTSB investigation thus far has revealed the number three engine had numerous ignition related issues. I quote… “An inspection of engine 3 showed all spark plugs electrode gaps were out of tolerance, fouled, and revealed various signs of detonation. Further inspection of this engine revealed problems with the cylinders.”
Number four engine was worse.“Regarding engine 4, to prevent the magneto “P” leads from separating from the magnetos, someone had attempted to rig the magneto leads in place with safety wire. Inspection and testing of engine 4 left magneto revealed the movement of the safety-wired lead caused grounding to the case, which rendered the magneto lead inoperative. In addition, the right magneto of engine 4 was found unserviceable. The cam follower was worn beyond limits and the point gap was less than half the measurement required by service documents. When tested, the magneto produced weak or no spark to four of the nine cylinders. All spark plugs were inspected and required cleaning and all electrode gaps were out of tolerance; therefore, further engine inspection indicated signs of detonation and associated damage.”
example of worn out, oil fouled, aircraft spark plug
B-17 Magneto
Number 2. Maintenance discrepancies record keeping.
“The discrepancies noted above indicate maintenance, or lack thereof, occurred in a manner contrary to maintaining aircraft in accordance with the General Maintenance Manual (GMM). Moreover, the records memorializing the inspections and maintenance performed on the B-17G lack key information and, in some cases, indicate maintenance was either not performed at all or was performed in a manner contrary to the applicable requirements.”Furthermore, the FAA looked back at previous flights flown in May of 2019 showing a record of two passenger flights flown after determining ignition wires burned and arcing but without any further maintenance or adjustments to determine the cause. “In addition, maintenance records indicate the removal of wires and no further repairs or adjustments, even though a wire was burned and arcing. See NL93012 B-17G Flying Fortress Flight Report (May 11, 2019). The same record, as well as a record from the following day, indicates flights with passengers occurred in the aircraft.”
Sample engine logbook entry
Number 3. Lack of formal training for the crew chief.
“While Collings produced some training records for maintenance personnel and pilots, the evidence indicates that Collings did not train the crew chief who was onboard the B-17G that was involved in the accident on October 2, 2019. The applicable General Operations Manual states that crew chiefs are assigned to every passenger flight aboard the B-17, B-25, and B-24. Crew chiefs must assist the flight-crew with duties as assigned during each flight. Such duties include, but are not limited to, assisting flight-crew with checklists and handling emergencies, as well as assisting flight-crew and maintenance personnel in preparation for each flight and helping with ground operations and ramp safety. Crew chiefs are required to be familiar with all documents that must be on board the aircraft and must be “trained by the [pilot in command], [second in command], another Crew Chief or the [Director of Maintenance]. In an interview with the FAA on March 2, 2020, the crew chief verified that he received no initial training and was unaware of basic information concerning operations under the exemption. Instead, he only received on-the-job training.”
Number 4. The Monkey Guarding the Bananas.
“…notable maintenance discrepancies existed with the B-17G, yet the Collings Director of Maintenance signed inspection records—dated as recently as September 23, 2019—indicating no findings of discrepancies. No records or evidence of the completion of periodic audits exist with regard to this aircraft. In addition, the pilot in command of the B-17G was also the Director of Maintenance; as a result, Collings did not have a structure to ensure adequate oversight of his decisions to conduct passenger-carrying operations such as the October 2 flight. This indicates Collings lacked a safety culture when operating the B-17G.”
This gets to the real heart of why None-O-Nine ended up destroyed including the deaths of paying passengers, the pilot, and co-pilot. The crew chief was supposed to be on board as a member of the flight crew to assist in operation of the airplane plus be trained and ready to assist the flight crew in the event of an emergency. He was there , behind the cockpit,with no seat nor seat belt available, in addition to no knowledge of the Safety Management System. ”On October 2, 2019, Collings operated a Boeing B-17G (registration number N93012, serial number 32264) under Exemption 6540P in Windsor Locks, Connecticut, during which it undertook an emergency landing and crashed, causing a fire and resulting in fatal injuries to five passengers and two crewmembers onboard the aircraft.2 Findings from the accident investigation establish that 13 persons were onboard the aircraft at the time of the accident. No seat with a seatbelt on the aircraft existed for the Collings Foundation Crew Chief.“
The Director of Maintenance for the Collings Foundation was the None-O-Nine’s chief pilot. He was the highest time B-17 pilot ever. He had flown this airplane thousands of hours. He directed all the maintenance. However, over time, he began to fly this airplane with known problems. He began to falsify the maintenance documents lying by omission. These magneto, ignition, cylinder and plug problems had grown to a point that on the morning of the accident flight, they had considerable difficulty in getting one of the engines to start. The Director of Maintenance attributed that to wet magnetos and shut down the running engines, using external compressed air pointed at the wet or damp magneto in an attempt to dry it out for an eventual successful engine start. These magnetos are designed to run in the worst of rains. More evidence that the performance of the ignition system was so compromised, starting the engines in high humidity was problematic. One of the now deceased passengers had concerns about safety with the first failed attempt to start the engine but was assured by a mechanic that once the engine starts, it will be fine. Even with that amount of difficulty getting the engine to start, which was another warning sign of a faulty ignition system, after they managed to get it started, they still decided to fly with a multitude of known and documented issues. We don’t know if nor how much power these engines were making at take-off. Enough for the take off but shortly after take off they requested a return to the airport. Up to this time, the pilot/DOM had overcome and handled every previous in flight maintenance related problem.
Since he was not only the chief pilot and the Director of Maintenance, with a decades long record of accident free, successful flying with paying passengers, no one questioned his integrity nor his decision-making skills. His record up to this time was virtually unblemished. The Collings Foundation has had a reputation for rebuilding, restoring, and maintaining warbirds winning many awards for their efforts. And their Director of Maintenance was the highest time, most experienced B-17 pilot in the world. They have been audited in accordance with all FAA guidelines regularly meeting or exceeding all of the standards. All of that confidence proved to be ill-placed. There are reasons for checks and balances specifically for this kind of deteriorating judgement.
I was extremely shocked at these new revelations uncovered by the FAA since Collings last review. I was one of the 1500 comments made by individuals requesting the FAA to allow the Collings Foundation to keep their LHFE adding another aircraft ( B-25) to be flown carrying paying passengers as they finished a restoration on a replacement B-17.
“As noted in the previous section regarding rescission of Exemption No. 6540P, the FAA has determined through ongoing investigation that Collings has not been operating in compliance with the conditions and limitations of the 6540P exemption issued to Collings. In addition, the FAA continues to gather facts that indicate Collings lacked a commitment to safety, insofar as Collings did not take seriously its safety management system program. Based on the totality of facts the FAA has gathered, granting an extension to Collings’s current authority to operate and permitting Collings to add an aircraft to its exemption would adversely affect safety.”
At this point, we don’t know if the FAA found other shortcomings in the remaining Collings Foundation fleet of restored warbirds. I want to think no. I am hoping this lack of integrity regarding falsification of maintenance records, lack of maintenance, and shoddy maintenance when performed was isolated to the B-17 Nine-O-Nine and it’s Director of Maintenance/chief pilot. Hopefully, if any and all shortcomings can be corrected, the FAA can consider returning the LHFE to Collings. .
We will never know what was going through the DOM’s mind nor his motives to do what he did. Unfortunately, this behavior continued because a lack of checks and balances in place to question the DOM’s position, authority, responsibilities, and evaluate his decision-making skills. This behavior was long term and methodical indicating that he was confident he could deal with any issue that might arise, giving him an increasing false sense of confidence. Sadly, it appears to this writer that he was also confident he would not be caught further increasing the bravado.
Time will tell. The NTSB ‘s final cause report will reveal more information as well. But sadly, this was a case of “The Monkey Guarding the Bananas” with no internal interest questioning or evaluation of the DOM’s overall performance. Most likely due because of the long term safety record of Nine-O-Nine, his high time in the airplane, his position as DOM, with ultimately Collings Foundation’s placing what appears to be blind trust in his abilities and integrity.
However, the Collings Foundation, the families of the victims, the Living History Flight Exemption program, and general aviation as whole is paying an enormous price for those failures and misplaced trust. As with most accidents, there is a long chain of small events, that when linked together, makes what was for a time, problems but with manageable outcomes. Unfortunately, there is a saturation point where adding one more variable turns the formerly manageable into lethal. The culture that allowed this behavior to continue unchecked, is what the FAA has determined to be dangerous to public safety. That is where the beginning of the accident chain started.
So far, no comments or response from the Collings Foundation. In addition, the NTSB is still several months, if not for another year, away from issuing a final cause for this crash. This writer sadly agrees with the FAA. The Collings Foundation internal maintenance culture has got to change to include strict adherence to establish rules and procedures very clearly delineated in the Living History Flight Exemption program before being allowed flying warbirds with paying passengers again.
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Holdeman Aero 